November Home Sales Rise 73%

November home sales rise 73%: CREA

Sales of existing homes were up 73 per cent in November compared to last year's level, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

A total of 36,383 residential properties traded hands via the association's Multiple Listing Service of homes for sale. That was only 0.4 per cent off of the all-time high for November sales activity that was set in 2007. New monthly sales records were set in Ontario and Quebec.

"For housing, the recession was oh so last year," BMO economist Doug Porter said in a report released Tuesday, entitled It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like a Bubble.
The national average price gained 19 per cent compared to November 2008, at $337,231, the CREA said Tuesday. Year to date, the average price rose 4.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. But the average price in Canada's major markets was up 20 per cent year-over-year, to $368,665. Nationally, the average price in November edged back from the peak reached in October.

But Porter stopped short of calling an outright real estate bubble, noting that the reported price change was skewed by the surge in Vancouver and Toronto sales, two of the priciest markets.
"Using a fixed-weight measure, average home prices in the major markets have risen by a milder 11 per cent year over year - still robust, but short of a warning-bell-ringing pace," Porter noted.

Still, because home sales were extraordinarily weak for four months beginning in November 2008, "this will be but the first in a string of China-style gains for Canadian home sales and prices," Porter said.
Boost in new listings

Strong demand and price increases appear to be drawing more sellers into the market. New listings on the MLS system rose five per cent on a month-over-month basis in November to 69,110 units, the biggest monthly increase since January 2008.
But the surge in new listings hasn't pushed inventories higher, as much of the new housing stock is being gobbled up by buyers eagers to capitalize on record low interest rates.

There were 183,710 homes listed for sale on MLS at the end of November 2009. This is down 23 per cent from levels reported one year ago, and the seventh month in a row in which inventories have declined from year-ago levels. An increase is normal at this time of year, since demand tends to ease relative to supply over autumn and winter months.

Nationally, there were four months of inventory in November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years.

Since the beginning of 2009, some 437,507 homes have been sold on the MLS system

Interst rates may rise despite BoC deadline

Interest rates may rise despite BoC deadline
Scotia economist warns of bond, mortgage hikes

Jonathan Chevreau, Financial Post Published: Thursday, December 10, 2009

Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2323217#ixzz0ZhT6MHQc
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Bond yields and mortgage rates could head higher before the Bank of Canada's pledge to hold interest rates steady expires in July, the chief economist at Bank of Nova Scotia said this week.
"There's a very good chance long-term rates will head up before then," Warren Jestin said in Toronto at a briefing sponsored by the Investment Funds Institute of Canada.
He warned new homeowners with variable-rate mortgages not to be influenced by the central bank's neutral statements on rates on Tuesday. The bank has pledged to hold rates at a historic low of 0.25% until the end of the second quarter of next year, inflation conditions permitting.
Read the "fine print" and he believes it's likely three-year and five-year mortgage rates will be higher before July 2010.
Mr. Jestin does not foresee a double-dip recession. "Those who expect renewed recession next spring will be proved wrong." For North America, "2010 is a year we fill in the hole we dug for ourselves in one of the most vicious recessions in our lives." But the global economy will grow at a "slower rate than we'd consider normal a few years ago. We believe expansion won't be that strong in 2011 so we don't see rates continuing up in 2011."
Christopher Probyn, managing director and chief economist for State Street Global Advisors, expects the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.75% to 1.5% in the second half of 2010. However, he said inflation may run surprisingly low so the Fed could "be on hold much longer than people anticipate."
The 2008-2009 period was by far the worst economy since the International Monetary Fund started collecting data in 1970. "For the first time, there was a contraction in the global economy." Growth in world gross domestic product fell from over 5% in 2007 to 3% in 2008 but went to -2.5% in 2009.
The low was the first quarter of 2009, when the economy contracted at a rate of 6% annualized. But it was flat in the second quarter and returned to positive growth in the third, "so throughout 2009 there has been progressive improvement."
Mr. Probyn foresees a sustained but "rather gradual" recovery, with GDP expanding 2.5% in 2010. Last week's favorable employment report suggests the next stage in recovery may already have arrived. "Maybe we're very close to achieving stability in the labor market," Mr. Probyn said.
Like Mr. Jestin, he doesn't foresee a double-dip recession in 2010. He said the recovery is more likely to be U-shaped, with some bouncing along the bottom, than the instant rebound of a Vshaped comeback.

Housing Starts Hit their Highest Level This Year

Tavia Grant
Published on Tuesday, Dec. 08, 2009 8:17AM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Dec. 08, 2009 8:33AM EST
Housing starts hit their highest level this year in November, more proof that Canada's real-estate market has clawed out of recession.
Starts rose slightly to 158,500 units, on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 157,400 in October as single-home construction outweighed a drop in multiple home activity, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Tuesday.
“The improvement in housing starts continued in November,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.
The results were slightly less than the 165,000 starts economists had expected. Still, they're running at a much stronger level than in April, when they sunk to the 118,500 mark.
Record low interest rates are fuelling a rebound in Canada's real-estate market, spurring rising prices and a flurry of buying activity. The Bank of Canada will provide its current view of lending rates and the economy today at 9 a.m. Eastern time.
More builders have plans in the works, a report showed yesterday. Building permits jumped 18 per cent in October to the highest value in 13 months, Statistics Canada said yesterday.
Multiple starts eased in November, CMHC said, to 71,300 units from 72,500 units a month earlier. Single starts rose 3.4 per cent to 69,800 units.
The annual rate of urban starts has risen the most in Quebec, at 10 per cent, followed by Atlantic Canada.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/housing-starts-hit-2009-high/article1392416/

Bank of Canada Forcast

Louise Egan
Ottawa — Reuters Published on Sunday, Dec. 06, 2009 10:57AM EST Last updated on Sunday, Dec. 06, 2009 4:56PM EST
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its hands off interest rates Tuesday, holding them at near zero and committing to do so until at least July, despite growing evidence the economy is kicking back to life.
Fears of prolonged economic stagnation eased Friday with a report showing employers hired five times as many workers as expected. The data supported the Bank of Canada's view that economic growth will speed up in the fourth quarter after a disappointing third-quarter, when it barely crept out of recession with tepid 0.4 per cent annualized growth.
All 12 of Canada's primary securities dealers , surveyed by Reuters after the jobs report Friday, forecast the central bank would hold its overnight target rate unchanged at 0.25 per cent at its final policy-setting meeting of the year.
The bank releases its rate decision and accompanying statement at 9 a.m. ET Tuesday.
Two-thirds of the traders think the bank will follow through on its pledge to hold rates at that level through mid-2010, conditional on inflation staying on track.
“They will lean over backward to make their conditional forecast come true,” said David Laidler, an economist with the C.D. Howe Institute.
“What they might start doing between now and June or July, is they might start making more and more public noises about the need to raise interest rates immediately afterward. That's the kind of thing you'll see but not in this announcement,” he said.
Others think the bank's job will be to dampen any speculation that it will abandon its zero-rate policy at the earliest opportunity.
“We expect the bank to attempt to temper early rate hike expectations at next Tuesday's policy announcement,” said Sheryl King, head of Canadian economics and strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The Bank of Canada will be pleased with the November job gains, not just because its prophecy of a robust 3.3 per cent fourth quarter may be fulfilled but because it lessens the bank's concerns about the strong Canadian dollar hindering a robust recovery.